My entire model is based on statistics. My brand has a bell curve in the background because I look at the live statistics the teams have produced during that season and produce an expected outcome. My model actually produces a score for each team. This is only step one of the process. The second step and third steps are to look at past statistical data and match ups and determine which games are likely to occur. My results have been very solid. Assuming a -110 bet ratio, 52.38% is breakeven. My numbers are considerably higher than that. However, I caution that I don't start betting until Week 4 of each football season and about the 5th game in during college basketball season. I only bet between 3-5% of my bankroll on any given game. My best program is college basketball, then college football, and finally the NFL. Just like a mutual fund brochure in the stock market, past performance doesn't dictate future success. Good Luck and Good Gambling!! If you hit big, please give back to Wounded Warriors or St. Judes. Don't get me wrong... I wouldn't mind going on a vacation but these causes seem more worthwhile. The results above are close but not the official results of each season. NFL and NCAAF are minorly different because I added 3 star games. Check the performance tab within each sport. YouTube Channel MacktheTeachSportsAnalysis. SBR Forum ID usma1992.
Statistically this model is the most difficult. Why? There are only 32 teams, and they only play 17 games apiece. This means a year’s sample size is only 544 games. In addition, the NFL has a tremendous amount of parity. As they say, Any Given Sunday!!! However, I have back tested my current algorithms and they have produced over 60% the last several seasons. Good Luck!! Don’t bet until Week 4.
This is my second favorite model. With over 120 teams, each year produces over 1000 games to analyze. The difficulty with college football is the lack of parity. It is almost the opposite of the NFL. I have a unique method to account for strength of schedule. My algorithms are back tested and are producing over 60%. Don’t bet until Week 4 and watch out for a Constanza week, normally Week 6 or Week 7.
National Basketball Association
This model is tight. Last season I was predicting scores within a couple of points. I started posting my thread Jan 1, 2024, on Sports Book Review, by March 1st I had 33K views. I analyze every game, every night and put out picks. If you are going to pay for any of my programs, this is the most valuable. It analyzes at least 400 games a week and it is winning. It kicks off Thanksgiving!!
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